
Rupture Characteristics of the Dingri M S6.8 Earthquake in Xizang and Prediction of Strong Aftershocks in the Sequence
Zhao Xiaoyan, He Suge, Kong Lingsong, Zhang Tianyu, Peng Guanling, Wang Guangming, Su Youjin
Rupture Characteristics of the Dingri M S6.8 Earthquake in Xizang and Prediction of Strong Aftershocks in the Sequence
The M S6.8 Dingri earthquake in Xizang on January 7, 2025, exhibited a spatially extensive and complex aftershock sequence, with a relatively small maximum aftershock magnitude. Additionally, the lack of comparable historical earthquake data in the region posed significant challenges for strong aftershock prediction. This study utilizes phase reports from the regional seismic network in Xizang and applies the double-difference relocation method to precisely relocate the Dingri M S6.8 earthquake sequence. The results reveal that the aftershock zone extends along a north-south (NS) trend, spanning approximately 80 km in length, with the actual rupture length exceeding empirical estimates. The sequence displays distinct segmentation characteristics, with dense clusters at the northern and southern ends and sparse activity in the central section. The spatial distribution of aftershocks with magnitudes M L≥4.5 is highly complex, influenced and controlled by multiple factors, including heterogeneous coseismic slip, local stress conditions, fault geometry, tectonic setting, and historical seismic rupture patterns. The largest aftershock recorded was M S5.0, yielding a magnitude difference of 1.8 from the mainshock. This observation supports the empirical relationship that “larger rupture lengths correlate with greater magnitude differences between the mainshock and its largest aftershock.”
Dingri M S6.8 earthquake / M L≥4.5 aftershocks prediction / Dengmocuo fault / hypocenter relocation / earthquakes / hazards
Armijo, R., Tapponnier, P., Mercier, J. L., et al., 1986. Quaternary Extension in Southern Tibet: Field Observations and Tectonic Implications. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 91(B14): 13803-13872. https://doi.org/10.1029/JB091iB14p13803
|
Bai, L., Chen, Z. W., Wang, S. J., 2025. The 2025 Dingri M S 6.8 Earthquake in Xizang: Analysis of Tectonic Background and Discussion of Source Characteristics. Reviews of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, 56(3): 258-263 (in Chinese with English abstract).
|
Cohee, B.P., Beroza, G.C., 1994. Slip Distribution of the 1992 Landers Earthquake and Its Implications for Earthquake Source Mechanics. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 84 (3):692-712. https://doi.org/10.1016/0148-9062(95)94486-9
|
Das, S., Henry, C., 2003. Spatial Relation between Main Earthquake Slip and Its Aftershock Distribution. Reviews of Geophysics, 41(3): 156. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002RG000119
|
Duo, B. L., Pu, Q., Luo, S., et al., 2023. The Construction and Development of Seismic Monitoring Network in Tibet. Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research, 44(2): 73-78 (in Chinese with English abstract).
|
England, P., Houseman, G., 1989. Extension during Continental Convergence, with Application to the Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 94(B12): 17561-17579. https://doi.org/10.1029/JB094iB12p17561
|
Guo, C. B., Wu, R. A., Zhong, N., et al., 2024. Large Landslides along Active Tectonic Zones of Eastern Tibetan Plateau: Background and Mechanism of Landslide Formation. 49(12): 4635-4658 (in Chinese with English abstract).
|
He, H. L., Oguchi, T., Zhou, R., et al., 2001. Damage and Seismic Intensity of the 1996 Lijiang Earthquake, China. Geographical Review of Japan, Series B, 74(2): 187-198. https://doi.org/10.4157/grj1984b.74.187
|
Helmstetter, A., Sornette, D., 2003. BÅTH’S Law Derived from the Gutenberg-Richter Law and from Aftershock Properties. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(20): 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018186
|
Jiang, H. K., Li, M. X., Wu, Q., et al., 2008. Features of the May 12 M8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake Sequence and Discussion on Relevant Problems. Seismology and Geology, 30(3): 746-758 (in Chinese with English abstract).
|
Jiang, H.K., Yang, M.L., Fu, H., et al., 2015. A Reference Guide for Post-Earthquake Trend Judgment. Seismological Press, Beijing (in Chinese).
|
Kisslinger, C., Jones, L. M., 1991. Properties of Aftershock Sequences in Southern California. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 96(B7): 11947-11958. https://doi.org/10.1029/91JB01200
|
Li, Q. H., Wan, Y. G., 2024. Geometry of Seismogenic Faults Determination of the 2021 Maduo Earthquake Sequence by Fuzzy Clustering Algorithm. Earth Science, 49(9): 3363-3376 (in Chinese with English abstract).
|
Li, Y. S., Li, W. L., Xu, Q., et al., 2025. InSAR Coseismic Deformation Detection and Fault Slip Distribution Inversion of the M S 6.8 Earthquake in Dingri, Tibet on January 7, 2025. Journal of Chengdu University of Technology (Science & Technology Edition), 52(2): 199-211 (in Chinese with English abstract).
|
Liang, M. J., Dong, Y. X., Zuo, H., et al., 2025. Surface Deformation Characteristics and Causes of the Dengmecuo Segment in the Xizang Dingri M S 6.8 Earthquake. Seismology and Geology, 47(1): 80-89 (in Chinese with English abstract).
|
Pei, S. P., Su, J. R., Zhang, H. J., et al., 2010. Three-Dimensional Seismic Velocity Structure across the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 Earthquake, Sichuan, China. Tectonophysics, 491(1-4): 211-217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2009.08.039
|
Shao, Y. X., Wang, A. S., Liu, J., et al., 2025. Preliminary Investigation on Surface Rupture and Coseismic Displacement of the January 7, 2025 Dingri Earthquake in Xizang. Earth Science, 50(5): 1677-1695 (in Chinese with English abstract).
|
Shcherbakov, R., Goda, K., Ivanian, A., et al., 2013. Aftershock Statistics of Major Subduction Earthquakes. The Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 103(6): 3222-3234. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120337
|
Su, Y.J., Li, Z.H., Zhao, X.Y., et al., 2014. Study on Global Earthquake Sequences with Magnitude 7 and above. Yunnan University Press, Kunming (in Chinese with English abstract).
|
Tian, T. T., Wu, Z. H., 2023. Recent Prehistoric Major Earthquake Event of Dingmucuo Normal Fault in the Southern Segment of Shenzha-Dingjie Rift and Its Seismic Geological Significance. Geological Review, 69(S1): 53-55 (in Chinese with English abstract).
|
Tian, Y., Zhao, D.P., Sun, R.M., et al., 2007. The 1992 Landers Earthquake: Effect of Crustal Heterogeneity on Earthquake Generation. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 50(5): 1488-1496 (in Chinese with English abstract).
|
Tsapanos, T. M., 1990. B-Values of Two Tectonic Parts in the Circum-Pacific Belt. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 134(2): 229-242. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00876999
|
Utsu, T., 1961. A Statistical Study on the Occurrence of Aftershocks. Geophysical Magazine, 30: 521-605.
|
Waldhauser, F., 2000. A Double-Difference Earthquake Location Algorithm: Method and Application to the Northern Hayward Fault, California. The Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 90(6): 1353-1368. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120000006
|
Wang, M., Shen, Z. K., 2020. Present-Day Crustal Deformation of Continental China Derived from GPS and Its Tectonic Implications. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 125(2): e2019JB018774. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB018774
|
Wells, D. L., Coppersmith, K. J., 1994. New Empirical Relationships among Magnitude, Rupture Length, Rupture Width, Rupture Area, and Surface Displacement. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 84(4): 974-1002. https://doi.org/10.1785/bssa0840040974
|
Wu, K.T., Jiao, Y.B., Lyu, P.L., et al., 1990. Introduction to Seismic Series. Peking University Press, Beijing (in Chinese).
|
Wu, Z. H., Long, C. X., Fan, T. Y., et al., 2015. The Arc Rotational-Shear Active Tectonic System on the Southeastern Margin of Tibetan Plateau and Its Dynamic Characteristics and Mechanism. Geological Bulletin of China, 34(1): 1-31 (in Chinese with English abstract).
|
Xiao, Z., 2019. Interior Structure of the Tibetan Plateau Revealed by Seismic Imaging (Dissertation). Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing (in Chinese with English abstract).
|
Xu, Z.S., Wen, X.T., Xi, N., et al., 2025. Aftershock Relocation and Intensity Distribution of the Dingri M S6.8 Earthquake in 2025. Earth Science, 50(5): 1759-1769 (in Chinese with English abstract).
|
Yang, J. W., Jin, M. P., Ye, B., et al., 2025. Source Rupture Mechanism and Stress Changes to the Adjacent Area of January 7, 2025, M S 6.8 Dingri Earthquake, Xizang, China. Seismology and Geology, 47(1): 36-48 (in Chinese with English abstract).
|
Yang, T., Wang, S.G., Fang, L.H., et al., 2025. Analysis of Earthquake Sequence and Seismogenic Structure of the 2025 M S 6.8 Dingri Earthquake in Tibetan Plateau. Earth Science, 50(5): 1721-1732 (in Chinese with English abstract).
|
Yao, J. Y., Yao, D. D., Chen, F., et al., 2025. A Preliminary Catalog of Early Aftershocks Following the 7 January 2025 M S 6.8 Dingri, Xizang Earthquake. Journal of Earth Science, 36(2): 856-860. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12583-025-0210-9
|
Žalohar, J., 2014. Explaining the Physical Origin of BÅTH’S Law. Journal of Structural Geology, 60: 30-45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2013.12.009
|
Zhang, J. J., Ding, L., 2003. Eastwest Extension in Tibetan Plateau and Its Significance to Tectonic Evolution. Scientia Geologica Sinica, 38(2): 179-189 (in Chinese with English abstract).
|
Zhang, J. W., Li, H. A., Zhang, H. P., et al., 2020. Research Progress in Cenozoic N-S Striking Rifts in Tibetan Plateau. Advances in Earth Science, 35(8): 848-862 (in Chinese with English abstract).
|
Zhang, Q. W., Xu, Y., Wang, X. G., 2024. Characteristics of Global Gravitational Potential Energy and Its Geological Significance Analysis Based on the Crust1.0 Model. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 67(1): 77-88 (in Chinese with English abstract).
|
Zhao, X. Y., Han, L. B., Xu, F. K., et al., 2014. Research on Tracking Analysis for Ludian M S 6.5 Earthquake Sequence in Yunnan in 2014. Journal of Seismological Research, 37(4): 508-514 (in Chinese with English abstract).
|
Zou, J. J., Shao, Z. G., He, H. L., et al., 2025. Surface Rupture Interpretation and Building Damage Assessment of Xizang Dingri M S 6.8 Earthquake on January 7, 2025. Seismology and Geology, 47(1): 16-35 (in Chinese with English abstract).
|
感谢西藏自治区地震局在震后布设的流动台站,感谢中国地震台网中心、西藏自治区地震局提供的正式、快报观测报告以及地震目录.2025年1月7日至1月21日,中国地震台网中心、西藏自治区地震局联合云南省地震局,每日召开定日地震的专题序列会商,本文得益于与会专家,尤其是蒋海昆研究员、刘杰研究员和孟令媛研究员的指导,西藏自治区地震局高锦瑞台长在数据使用方面提供的帮助,在此一并致谢.文中图件采用GMT6.0软件绘制!
/
〈 |
|
〉 |