
Establishment of a simple prognostic scoring system for stage Ⅰ endometrial carcinoma
Ding Shanshan, Jiang Peng, Yuan Rui, Hu Zhuoying
Establishment of a simple prognostic scoring system for stage Ⅰ endometrial carcinoma
Objective To establish a simple prognostic scoring system for stage Ⅰ endometrial carcinoma,and to provide a reference tool for clinical practice. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed for the case data of the patients with stage Ⅰ endometrial carcinoma who received surgical treatment in The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University from 2014 to 2021,and univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify the influencing factors for recurrence and death. A simple scoring system was established based on the results of the multivariate analysis,and the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and the area under the ROC curve(AUC)were used to compare the accuracy of the scoring system versus each single predictive factor in predicting the prognosis of patients. X-title software was used to determine the cut-off value of the scoring system and divide the patients into different risk groups,and then the prognosis distribution of patients was compared between groups. Results The multivariate analysis showed that age(recurrence:Wald χ2 =4.482,P=0.034;death:Wald χ2=8.401,P=0.004),pathological type(recurrence:Wald χ2 =6.692,P=0.010;death:Wald χ2 =4.222,P=0.040),myometrial invasion(recurrence:Wald χ2 =6.372,P=0.034;death:Wald χ2 =7.183,P=0.007),lymphovascular space invasion(recurrence:Wald χ2 =13.396,P<0.001;death:Wald χ2 =8.449,P=0.004),the expression of estrogen receptor(recurrence:Wald χ2 =7.679,P=0.006;death:Wald χ2 =8.532,P=0.003),and P53 expression(recurrence:Wald χ2 =7.886,P=0.005;death:Wald χ2 =7.174,P=0.007)were influencing factors for recurrence and death. A simple scoring system was successfully established for the prognosis of patients based on the above six factors,and the ROC curve analysis showed that the scoring system had a larger AUC than each predictive factor alone. The cut-off value of the scoring system was determined by X-title software,and the patients were divided into low-risk group(0-1 points),intermediate-risk group(2-3 points),and high-risk group(4-6 points); there was a significant difference in overall prognosis between the three groups(P<0.001). Conclusion The simple scoring system established in this study has a certain value in assessing the prognosis of patients with stage I endometrial carcinoma.
stage I / endometrial carcinoma / prognosis / scoring system
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