
Risk factors for adverse events after percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with acute myocardial infarction: an analysis based on a random forest survival model
Zhu Xiang, Yu Shun, Liu Xingyu, Wang Shengnan, Wu Lei
Risk factors for adverse events after percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with acute myocardial infarction: an analysis based on a random forest survival model
Objective To comprehensively analyze the influencing factors for the prognosis of patients with acute myocardial infarction(AMI) after percutaneous coronary intervention(PCI),to construct a prediction model and a prognosis scoring system,and to provide a reference for individualized vascular treatment in clinical practice. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed for all AMI patients who underwent PCI in The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from January 2018 to June 2022,with the follow-up outcome of the onset of major adverse cardiovascular events(MACE) for the first time after surgery. The ten-fold cross-validated lasso regression analysis was used to determine the variables to be included in the model,and a random survival forest(RSF) model and a Cox proportional hazards model were constructed. The area under the ROC curve(AUC) and calibration curves were used to evaluate the performance of the model,and a risk calculator was developed according to the fitting results of RSF model. Results A total of 3 880 patients with AMI were finally included in the study,among whom 473(12.2%) experienced MACE within one year after surgery. Lasso regression obtained 15 variables including sex,type of AMI,and hypertension,and the multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that diabetes,low left ventricular ejection fraction(30%~40%),and degree of vascular stenosis were the risk factors for postoperative MACE. In the validation set,the RSF and Cox models had an AUC of 0.774(95%CI=0.761~0.787) and 0.597(95%CI=0.581~0.613),respectively. The calibration curves showed that the model had a relatively high accuracy in predicting the risk of MACE within one year,and RSF score with the optimal cut-off value of 133 could also accurately distinguish the cumulative risk of MACE(P<0.001). Conclusion The RSF model and the scoring system constructed based on the above factors can effectively predict the risk of postoperative MACE and perform risk stratification,thereby helping cardiovascular physicians to formulate individualized treatment regimens in clinical practice.
acute myocardial infarction / major adverse cardiovascular events / random survival forest / Cox regression / prognostic score
1 |
|
2 |
|
3 |
|
4 |
|
5 |
|
6 |
|
7 |
|
8 |
|
9 |
|
10 |
|
11 |
|
12 |
|
13 |
|
14 |
|
15 |
|
16 |
李 瑞,刘墨麒,黎佳璐,等. 心脑血管系统的影像评估对主要心血管不良事件的预测作用[J]. 中国脑血管病杂志,2022,19(3):154-160.
|
17 |
张 鑫,丁 莹,姚毅仁,等. 早发急性ST段抬高型心肌梗死患者预后风险列线图模型的构建与验证[J]. 南京医科大学学报(自然科学版),2022,42(11):1539-1546,1552.
|
18 |
|
19 |
赵圣吉,刘超权,郑伟民. eGFR对行直接PCI治疗的急性心肌梗死患者预后的影响[J]. 中国循证心血管医学杂志,2018,10(12):1534-1536,1539.
|
20 |
|
21 |
|
22 |
|
23 |
|
24 |
张亚茹,薛政凯,缪 帅,等. 支架数目对经皮冠状动脉介入治疗相关的围术期心肌梗死的影响[J]. 中华老年心脑血管病杂志,2020,22(8):828-831.
|
25 |
张海华,俞梦越. 青年非ST段抬高型心肌梗死患者的临床特点分析[J]. 中国循环杂志,2022,37(9):914-919.
|
/
〈 |
|
〉 |