气候变化严重影响流域内水资源的形成和水文要素之间的转化,准确量化河川径流对气候变化的响应对流域水资源的合理开发利用具有重要意义。当前非稳态条件下的水文气候弹性解析研究相对较少,本研究以白洋淀流域山区的八个子流域为研究区,使用最新提出的基于Budyko模式的非稳态径流弹性系数解析新方法,将年际径流对气候变化的响应进行分析,在中国流域验证该方法的有效性,将其适用范围进行拓展,并进一步与采用多年时间尺度稳态条件下的基于Budyko模式的弹性方法分析结果进行对比。结果表明:年际尺度下,年蒸散比和水储量变化比与年干旱指数具有良好的线性相关性;在年际和多年时间尺度下河川径流对降水变化更为敏感;而年际尺度下径流弹性系数小于多年稳态下的结果,表明流域水储量对径流气候变化的响应起到了重要的调节作用。年际弹性系数与流域面积的相关性较好。本研究验证了最新提出的基于Budyko模式的非稳态径流弹性系数新方法的有效性,并进一步将其适用性由湿润区拓展到半湿润、半干旱地区,对今后白洋淀流域和雄安新区水资源的合理利用具有重要的指导意义。

Climate change significantly impacts the formation of water resources and the transformation of hydrological elements within basins. Accurately quantifying river runoff responses to climate change is crucial for the sustainable development and efficient utilization of water resources. However, research on hydrological climate elasticity under non-stationary conditions remains relatively limited. This study focuses on eight sub-basins in the mountainous region of the Baiyangdian Lake Basin, employing a newly developed non-stationary runoff elasticity coefficient analysis method based on the Budyko model to examine the annual runoff response to climate change. The proposed method is validated in a Chinese basin, broadening its applicability, and is compared with results obtained using the Budyko model-based elasticity method under multi-year stationary conditions. The results reveal the following: on an annual scale, the annual evapotranspiration ratio and water storage change ratio exhibit a strong linear correlation with the annual aridity index; runoff is more sensitive to changes in precipitation at both annual and multi-year time scales; the annual runoff elasticity coefficient is smaller than the coefficient calculated under multi-year stationary conditions, highlighting the significant regulatory role of basin water storage in runoff responses to climate change. Furthermore, the annual elasticity coefficient is strongly correlated with basin area. This study validates the effectiveness of the newly proposed non-stationary runoff elasticity coefficient method based on the Budyko model and extends its applicability from humid regions to semi-humid and semi-arid areas. These findings provide valuable guidance for the sustainable management of water resources in the Baiyangdian Lake Basin and the Xiong’an New Area.