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藏南裂谷系正断层带孕震潜力和地震危险性讨论
胡贵明, 徐岳仁, 刘晗, 袁瑞敏, 陆玲玉
PDF(12840 KB)
PDF(12840 KB)
藏南裂谷系正断层带孕震潜力和地震危险性讨论
Estimation of the Maximum Magnitude of Normal Faults and Seismic Risk in the Southern Tibetan Rift Zones
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青藏高原南部自西向东分布有多组近南北向的藏南裂谷系，作为块体内部重要的构造伸展区，发育了一系列的正断层和正断层型强震.自晚第四纪以来，该区域构造活动强烈，地震频繁且诱发的灾害大，例如2025年1月7日定日Mw7.1地震便呈现出“小震大灾”的特征.为了评估裂谷系内正断层的孕震能力以及了解这些正断层的致灾程度，依据断层的几何特征划分了92条正断层，并统计了每条断层的迹线长度.基于地震导致断层沿地表迹线全段破裂的假设，结合全球正断层地震破裂尺度与矩震级的关系经验公式，估算了藏南裂谷系内各正断层潜在的最大震级.研究结果表明，这些正断层的孕震上限介于Mw6.5至Mw7.5.这些正断层普遍具有较强的孕震能力，但也呈现出东强西弱的特征.裂谷系内的正断层带被南北两侧大型断裂带所围限且南侧主边界断裂带和块体内部存在多个历史地震空区，考虑到2015年尼泊尔Mw7.8强震加快了临界断层库仑应力加载过程和边界主断裂带上的强震可能存在联动或触发效应的背景下，该地区雅鲁藏布江以南的正断层，尤其是定日‒聂拉木一带、雄曲断层未来具有较高的强震危险性.
In the southern Tibetan rift zones, there are several approximately north-south trending rifts distributed from west to east. As important tectonic extensional zones within the blocks, these rifts have developed a series of normal faults and experienced multiple strong earthquakes. Since the Late Quaternary, this region has exhibited intense tectonic activity with frequent earthquakes causing serious disasters. For instance, the January 7, 2025 Mw7.1 (CENC: Ms6.9) Tingri earthquake demonstrated the characteristics of “small earthquake with major disaster consequences”. To assess the seismogenic potential of normal faults within the rift zones and understand their disaster-inducing competence, this study divides 92 normal fault zones based on geometric characteristics and statistically analyzed fault trace lengths. Under the assumption of full-length surface rupture along fault traces during earthquakes, combined with empirical relationships between normal fault rupture length and moment magnitude, we estimated the maximum potential magnitudes of normal faults in the rift zones. Results indicate that these normal faults have upper seismogenic limits ranging from Mw6.5 to Mw7.5, with numerous historical seismic gaps. While generally demonstrating strong seismogenic competence, they exhibit an eastward-increasing strength pattern. Bounded by major fault zones to the north and south, and considering multiple historical seismic gaps along the southern magethrust (particularly in the context of accelerated Coulomb stress loading following the 2015 Nepal Mw7.8 earthquake and potential interaction/triggering effects between major boundary faults), the normal faults south of Yarlung Tsangpo River, especially those in the Tingri-Nyalam and Xiongqu fault, show high potential for future strong earthquakes.
藏南裂谷系 / 正断层 / 最大震级 / 地震 / 联动和触发效应 / 构造地质.
southern Tibetan rift system / normal fault / maximum magnitude / earthquake / linkage and triggering effect / tectonics
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