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基于Box-Jenkins 随机模型的滑坡稳定性预测模型
张泰丽, 吴廷尧, 王鲁琦, 张震
PDF(4523 KB)
PDF(4523 KB)
基于Box-Jenkins 随机模型的滑坡稳定性预测模型
Nonlinear Prediction of Landslide Stability Based on Machine Learning
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滑坡稳定性含有非线性特征，机器学习算法相对于传统算法在滑坡稳定性预测中准确性更高.因此，为了更加准确地分析顺层岩质边坡在循环地震荷载作用下的稳定性，结合室内物理模型试验和离散元数值模拟软件PFC3D相互对比的研究手段，得到了滑带土的应变软化过程；并利用滑坡变形的非线性特点，和数值模拟得到的滑坡稳定性系数数据，经过模式识别、拟合检验等提出了基于机器学习算法（Box-Jenkins 随机模型）的滑坡稳定性预测模型.结果表明：（1）剪切应力的逐渐减小促进了滑带土应变的软化过程，滑带土的围压虽然能抑制滑带土裂缝的增加，但对应变软化的抑制作用有限；（2）本研究所建立的标准BIC值为8.160的ARIMA（1，1，0）（0，1，1）模型，可以对边坡稳定系数时间序列数据进行精准预测.基于边坡稳定系数和应力场的现场观测，进一步描述了两种可能的滑坡触发机制，同时时间序列的机器学习能准确预测循环荷载作用下边坡稳定系数的变化规律.
The prediction and stability analysis of landslide disaster have great engineering significance and application value. Machine learning algorithm is mainly used in landslide displacement prediction, but is limited in landslide stability analysis. Therefore, in order to more accurately analyze the stability of bedding rock slope under cyclic seismic load, the strain softening process of sliding zone soil was obtained by combining the research methods of indoor physical model test and the comparison of discrete element numerical simulation software. In addition, a landslide stability prediction model based on machine learning algorithm is proposed by taking advantage of the nonlinear characteristics of landslide deformation. The results show follows: (1) The gradual reduction of shear stress promotes the strain-softening process of soil in the sliding zone. Although confining pressure of soil in the sliding zone can inhibit the increase of cracks in the sliding zone, its inhibition effect on strain softening is limited. (2) The ARIMA(1,1,0)(0,1,1) model with the standard BIC value of 8.160 was established to accurately predict the time series data of the slope stability coefficient. Based on the field observation of the slope stability coefficient and stress field, two possible landslide-triggering mechanisms are described. Mechanical learning of time series can accurately predict the variation law of slope stability coefficient under cyclic load.
机器学习 / 滑坡 / 稳定性计算 / 时间序列 / 工程地质
machine learning / landslide / stability calculation / time series / engineering geology
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