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基于I-D-R阈值模型的滑坡气象预警
刘谢攀, 殷坤龙, 肖常贵, 陈丽霞, 曾韬睿, 李烨, 刘真意, 龚泉冰, 陈卫群
PDF(3230 KB)
PDF(3230 KB)
基于I-D-R阈值模型的滑坡气象预警
Meteorological Early Warning of Landslide Based on I-D-R Threshold Model
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建立滑坡灾害多维度气象预警判据和划分“网格化”预警单元能够为滑坡灾害气象预警提供科学依据.本文以浙江省金华市磐安县205个降雨型滑坡为研究对象，首先，基于平均有效降雨强度‒降雨历时（I-D）阈值模型，采用普通最小二乘回归（OLSQ）和分位数回归（QR）划分临界阈值曲线；其次，引入当日降雨量（R），进一步优化 I-D阈值模型，建立I-D-R阈值模型，采用不同参数估计方法对比不同阈值模型精度，选择最优阈值模型作为磐安县滑坡灾害气象预警判据；最后，基于降雨分布的差异性，在划分地形单元的基础上利用泰森多边形（VD）建立了乡镇级别的“网格化”预警单元.结果显示：（1）I-D-R阈值模型相比于I-D阈值模型具有更好的预警精度，且基于QR的I-D-R阈值模型效果更好，警告及以上阈值等级精度提升到50%，特别注意及以上阈值等级精度提升到88.9%；（2）采用基于QR的I-D-R降雨阈值作为磐安县51个预警单元四级气象预警（红、橙、黄、蓝）的判据，并提出相应的应急响应措施.研究成果提供了一种新的阈值模型，能够为磐安县区域气象预警提供借鉴与参考.
The establishment of the multi-dimensional meteorological early warning criterion of landslide and the division of the "grid" early warning unit can provide a scientific basis for the landslide early warning, for the purpose of which 205 rainfall-induced landslides in Panan County, Zhejiang Province were studied in this paper. Firstly, based on the average effective rainfall intensity-diachronic (I-D) threshold model, the critical threshold curves were divided by ordinary least squares regression (OLSQ) and quantile regression (QR). Secondly, the I-D-R threshold model was established by the I-D threshold model optimized by considering the daily rainfall (R), and different parameter estimation methods were used to compare the accuracy of different threshold models. The optimal threshold model was considered as the meteorological early warning criterion for landslide disasters in Pan’an County. Finally, considering the difference of rainfall distribution, the township level grid early warning unit was established by the terrain zoning and Voronoi diagram (VD) of Pan’an. The results show that: (1) The I-D-R threshold model has better early warning accuracy than the I-D model. The I-D-R threshold model based on QR has a better warning ability, and the accuracy of the threshold degree of warning and above is increased to 50%, and the accuracy of the threshold level of special attention and above is increased to 88.9%; (2) the rainfall conditions with I-D-R based on QR rainfall threshold are proposed as the early warning criteria (red, orange, yellow and blue) of 51 early warning units in Pan’an County, and the emergency response measures are put forward. A new threshold model is established on the basis of the research results, which can provide reference for regional meteorological early warning in Pan’an County.
滑坡 / 气象预警 / 降雨阈值 / 最小二乘回归 / 分位数回归 / I-D-R阈值模型 / 工程地质
landslide / meteorological early warning / rainfall threshold / ordinary least square regression / quantile regression / I-D-R threshold model / engineering geology
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