Prediction of volcanic CO2 flux based on random simulation: Taking the Mount Etna, Italy as an example

Haoran SUN, Jiale DOU, Nan LI, Peng WU, Cong DU, Xianzhe DUAN

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Earth Science Frontiers ›› 2024, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (4) : 429-437. DOI: 10.13745/j.esf.sf.2023.11.66

Prediction of volcanic CO2 flux based on random simulation: Taking the Mount Etna, Italy as an example

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Abstract

Volcanic activity, as a significant source of geological carbon emissions and contributor to deep carbon cycles, transports carbon from the Earth’s interior to the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases, particularly CO2, emitted by volcanic regions, exert a profound influence on global climate dynamics. Against the backdrop of global warming and initiatives such as the “carbon neutral” program, accurately estimating the flux of greenhouse gases from volcanic regions and assessing their impact on global carbon budgets are imperative. This paper elucidates the primary characteristics and survey methodologies for quantifying greenhouse gas emissions in volcanic areas. It proposes employing geostatistical methods to simulate CO2 sampling data from volcanoes, exemplified by Mount Etna, Italy. Additionally, the feasibility of incorporating covariates for cokriging interpolation simulations is analyzed, with comparisons drawn against ordinary kriging interpolation methods. Our findings reveal a correlation between CO2 release flux and soil temperature in volcanic regions, indicating that integrating soil temperature into cokriging interpolation simulations can mitigate error indices in the results. This research offers critical insights for quantitatively assessing the impact of volcanic activity on climate change and enhancing early warning systems for volcanic hazards.

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volcanic activity / greenhouse gas / carbon emission / stochastic simulation / Kriging interpolation method

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Haoran SUN , Jiale DOU , Nan LI , et al . Prediction of volcanic CO2 flux based on random simulation: Taking the Mount Etna, Italy as an example. Earth Science Frontiers. 2024, 31(4): 429-437 https://doi.org/10.13745/j.esf.sf.2023.11.66

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